What does ‘good weather’ actually mean? A market research look at the rise of coolcations

I love a beach holiday. Give me sunshine, a pool and somewhere warm and I’m generally pretty happy. But this summer we had our second child, so there have been no holidays for us. If anything, staying at home has made me think more about what I actually want from summer weather.

Us at a beach...in Reading. Yes you read that correctly. This is at Lagoona Park

It has been hot enough here, let alone going abroad looking for even more heat. On some of the hottest days we’ve probably spent more time indoors than we would during winter. That’s not really what I want from summers with our children. I want us outside, going to parks, playing in the garden and enjoying it. For me, anything much beyond 30°C is a no. The same applies to going away. I haven’t gone on holiday to spend the hottest part of the day sitting in a hotel room because it’s too uncomfortable to do anything.

That’s why a recent BBC News story about the rise of the ‘coolcation’ caught my attention. The Scottish Highlands are benefiting as some holidaymakers deliberately seek out cooler destinations. One hotel concierge in Glencoe told the BBC that visitors used to praise the scenery but complain about the weather. Now they’re coming because of the weather.

From a market research perspective, I think that’s fascinating. Scotland hasn’t changed. What people value might be changing.

Are we actually changing where we holiday?

There is some decent evidence that we are. Research by Opinium found that 30% of UK holidaymakers say they have started choosing cooler destinations to avoid extreme heat. More than half (55%) also plan to travel during cheaper or off-peak periods.

There is behavioural evidence too. Awaze, which owns cottages.com and Hoseasons, reported that searches for ‘coolcations’ increased 420% over three months, while searches for ‘escape the heat’ increased 300%. Scotland was the most-viewed destination across its UK portfolio.

So there seems to be something happening. The question I’d like to explore as a researcher is what does ‘good weather’ actually mean?

Is hotter really better?

Weather is an obvious driver of holiday choice, but asking someone ‘How important is good weather when choosing a holiday?’ doesn’t necessarily tell us very much. What is good weather?

I suspect the relationship between temperature and holiday appeal isn’t linear. Perhaps 18°C is a bit cool, 23°C is nice and 27°C is perfect. But then you hit a point where every additional degree starts making the holiday less appealing rather than more appealing.

My tipping point is around 30°C. Someone else’s might be 25°C or 35°C. That is what I’d want to measure.

What is your ideal temperature for a summer holiday? At what temperature would you reconsider a destination? Would 35°C put you off? What about 40°C? Would you choose somewhere cooler or simply visit Spain, Greece or Italy at a different time of year? And how much does that change when you have young children?

Those questions feel much more useful than simply asking whether people like hot weather.

A research experiment I’d love to run

Rather than asking people to rate the importance of price, weather and destination independently, I’d give them realistic choices.

Spain | 35°C | £1,000 | Beach

Scotland | 20°C | £800 | Countryside

Norway | 23°C | £1,200 | Mountains

Spain in September | 27°C | £850 | Beach

Vary the temperature, price, destination and time of year and you could start to understand the actual trade-offs people make.

How much cheaper does a 35°C holiday need to be before someone chooses it over 27°C? Do families have a lower tolerance for extreme heat? Are people changing where they travel, or simply when they travel?

There is also an opportunity to combine what people say with what they actually do. Survey research tells us why people think they are changing their behaviour. Search data tells us what they are considering. Booking data tells us what they eventually choose. Put the three together and you get a much richer picture.

When a weakness becomes a strength

The Scotland example is perhaps the most interesting part for me. Cooler and less predictable weather hasn’t traditionally been the obvious selling point for a summer holiday in Scotland. Now that same characteristic could become an advantage.

It’s a useful reminder that the value of a product attribute isn’t fixed. It depends on the context in which consumers are making their decisions. Scotland hasn’t changed, but the alternatives have.

I still want my beach holiday and plenty of sunshine. I’m not quite ready to swap it permanently for drizzle in the Highlands. But I also don’t want to spend thousands of pounds going somewhere so hot that we end up doing exactly what we’ve occasionally done at home this summer: staying inside.

Maybe ‘good weather’ doesn’t mean the hottest weather after all.